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carbon seamless steel pipe market huge earthquake "support" where to go?
Platts index dropped 7 dollars! This is the biggest one-day drop since 2012, "110 dollars" support is easily broken, carbon seamless steel pipe carbon seamless steel pipe market and even the whole industry are shrouded in pessimism over the falls, how the market "support" where to go? This fall, when a boss... $100 be placed in jeopardy, imported ore price falls again not on the impact of domestic carbon seamless steel pipe market step by step, the momentum more domestic mining enterprises rather worried.
Recently, the horse boat aircraft lost news broke the major media headlines, seize the "NPC and CPPCC" thunder, for seamless steel tube industry policy "support" has been the horse boat event extinction. At the same time, when the "tight money" into the market this year after China exclusive terms, the bond market the first substantive event of default "ultradian debt default" burst, more touch sensitive nerves in the market, short atmosphere intensified, carbon seamless steel pipe market is also difficult to own, focus on to "financing mine" on the body, risk assessment for financing mine referred to in the teeth of the storm.
carbon seamless steel pipe market support in where, the carbon seamless steel pipe production and trade enterprises hot topic. The current price Is it right? Capable of forming force formed tray, impetus to the market, to analyze the possibility from the following points.
First, from the analysis of carbon seamless steel pipe market condition. carbon seamless steel pipe market stage down cycle draws to a close, the domestic prices of imported ore prices a serious upside down, imported ore prices lower than the domestic ore prices, the domestic iron ore prices have nearly cost price case, imported ore prices continue to weaken down the possibility of. According to related data, between ore and finished powder of domestic ore selection than from 3.3-3.5 between 2008 2.3 to 2013, the domestic ore cost line upgrade. The carbon seamless steel pipe prices in Tangshan area as an example, 66% acid powder dry basis including tax once the price dropped to 1000 yuan, also basically is a cost of current market level, accounting to wet basis in non tax price of 760-770 yuan, and as of March 11th, 66% Tangshan acid powder wet basis not including tax price has dropped to 780-800 yuan, from which we can see is very close to the current cost line. 61.5%PB powder spot price has dropped to 710-720 yuan, accounting and domestic ore on the ratio of only 800 yuan (relative to the current Tangshan area domestic ore tax base price of around $1020), a far cry from the two prices, imports of ore to cut of little significance, after all, the domestic carbon seamless steel pipe business demand for imported ore remained at high level, from 2013 seamless resource supply situation, imports of ore resources occupy half of the country.
In addition, most domestic iron ore business in the years after the fall in prices, the basic in the production or semi production status, the overall operating ratio is extremely low, if the market prices continue to fall, will Daobi is in the running state of the mine enterprises in production, so that the domestic ore supply or reduce further, in fact, most inland domestic carbon seamless steel pipe business still need to purchase a part of domestic mineral resources to maintain production, and ensure the quality of products, the purchase frequency is maintained at 7-10 days, this round of price down cycle has continued for 12 days, resulting from the down cycle cost theory to support the short-term market will rebound, at the stage of adjustment.
Second, from the analysis of status quo of seamless steel tube industry. The current favorable seamless steel tube industry policy very rare, the policy of housing construction and infrastructure projects only, some rail transportation, the pulling effect of seamless steel tube industry giant is very little. According to the National Bureau of statistics data show that in 2014 February, the national industrial producer prices fell 2%, a decline of 0.2%. In February the domestic seamless steel tube industry PMI index for 39.9%, down 0.8 percentage points from the previous month. The index has fallen for 3 consecutive months, and the lowest level since September 2012, show that the overall situation of seamless steel tube industry is quite severe. On the problem of excess production capacity NPC and CPPCC proposal seminar, the Ministry said in the next few years will contain the new production project. Therefore, the seamless steel tube industry industrial structure adjustment, coupled with the "environmental policy" overweight, more emphasis on the seamless steel tube industry structure adjustment of the facts, to fundamentally control the carbon seamless steel pipe resource supply ability, in "a controlled growth", carbon seamless steel pipe market overall supply relative to seamless steel tube industry demand, "oversupply" situation will continue to be in the next 3-5 years, highlighting the buyer market effect, carbon seamless steel pipe prices continue to rise is unlikely.
Finally, on the international market and financial market is described, which may affect the second half of the seamless steel tube market trend this year. In December last year USA suddenly announced gradually introduced QE, continuous depreciation of the renminbi mortgage into dollar cost increases rapidly, which had said "risk financing of mine", once USA completely withdraw from the QE, so the devaluation of RMB trend is inevitable, thus financing arbitrage space is compressed, "funds chain" to maintain more difficult circumstances chips, fluctuation more late carbon seamless steel pipe market, which focus on the change of the international situation, as well as the changes in financial market, pay attention to "deflation" risk, more future dialysis carbon seamless steel pipe market.
To sum up, the carbon seamless steel pipe market operation is affected by many factors and more sensible eating
To sum up, the carbon seamless steel pipe market operation is affected by many factors is more and more difficult, low profit era of seamless steel tube industry will also be derived in carbon seamless steel pipe market. In the short term, carbon seamless steel pipe market will form a stage of adjustment, market confidence needs to be restored, hunters force has not yet formed, short-term rebound difficult to form a real purchasing power, the downside risk is the latter part of the market, imported ore market $100 point or support, domestic ore prices have fallen into place.
Hebei ChongSheng Special Steel Pipe Co.,Ltd.
Add: YANSHAN COUNTY,HEBEI PROVINCE,CHINA